Bitcoin has been in a rough spot recently, unable to regain the losses it incurred during the middle of August.
During the last week of September, it made a retest of the $26,000 support level, but prices remained stagnant.
Traditionally, Bitcoin recorded lackluster performances in September, and 2023 was no exception in this regard.
The challenging macroeconomic situation, with steep inflation rates, has also not helped growth in the least.
Yet, investors remained undeterred and continued to look for ways to buy Bitcoin online and add it to their portfolios.
BTC still lacks direction, and with the lack of a definitive answer from the SEC regarding the issue of ETFs and upcoming interest rate hikes until the end of the year, it’s clear that it will still be a while until the cryptocurrency environment recovers.
Here are some of the things you should remain mindful of when creating your trading strategy.
Green Status
Despite the problematic month, Bitcoin seems poised to finish the month in the black, above the break-even point.
This is a somewhat rare feat for BTC in September, but the latest data shows that the ratio between Bitcoin and the US dollar is 0.8% month-to-date.
The figures could predict the incoming changes for October. Traditionally, Bitcoin enters a bearish prelude during September before moving to make record sustainable gains during the second month of fall.
The lower volatility could mean that September 2023 might be on track as BTC’s most robust performance in the month over the past seven years.
Hodlers refers to October as “Uptober” as it has generally coincided with more considerable gains within the marketplace.
It’s possible that the upcoming month could provide the break the crypto market needs to break above the 200-week EMA.
Macroeconomics
The cryptocurrency environment is well-known for its sensitivity to both internal and external pressures.
Traditional finance events leave their mark on the crypto environment despite the fact that the two occupy different niches.
The return of more significant volatility is excellent news for traders, who can profit based on the tiny daily movements occurring within the crypto environment.
Markets currently say there’s a 75% chance that the interest rates will remain anchored to their current position until November.
The latest concerns consider the threat of a government shutdown over the issue of budget wrangling. Lawmakers have time until October 2nd to avert this situation.
Exchange Balance Drop
The Bitcoin available to buy on exchanges has been nearing its lowest level since 2018.
Some investors have considered this to be a decidedly bullish signal, but the available data seems to suggest otherwise.
Various factors underline the movement, and the experts often interpret it as a positive thing. Yet, this time, there appears to be a definitive lack of correlation between the Bitcoin price and the metrics.
Analysts looking into the statistics have estimated that the nature of the BTC exchange balance means that any multiyear decline doesn’t offer an indication that the Bitcoin supply is becoming scarcer or losing liquidity.
The same tendency has been recorded throughout the 2022 bear market. Synthetic BTC, tokenized representations of other asset classes that exist within the blockchain, are also added to the inventory via futures markets. When they were ultimately relented, the market hit a bottom.
According to some researchers, the approval of the exchange-traded fund by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission would remedy this situation.
Futures had a similar impact at the beginning of 2022 before the Bitcoin/dollar hit a two-year low of $15,600 in November.
The crypto environment was recording a bullish tendency at the time, as far as on-chain spot flows were taken into consideration, but the impact of the futures was different.
Japanese Stablecoins
Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world and Japanese financial and banking services giant Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation, the largest group in the world when measured by assets, have announced that they’re exploring the possibility of issuing Japanese yen and other stablecoins denominated by currencies in Japan. The fiat-backed coins would accelerate Web3 adoption and integration in the country.
Japan has long been considered a forerunner in tech adoption and is a crypto-friendly country. MUFG plans to use its own stablecoin issuance platform known as Progmat Coin.
When the features are launched, it will make the bank a pioneer in developing and using this platform technology.
Japan has recently enforced the Payments Services Act. The legislation was announced in January but took effect in June, allowing banking institutions and regulated cryptocurrency providers to issue stablecoins.
Experts declared that stablecoins are vital if the financial environment is to work accordingly.
That’s because the assets can provide almost instantaneous cross-border settlements for trades and transactions, making businesses considerably more efficient.
Moreover, they also come with lower fees, meaning enterprises can promote cost-reduction strategies.
ORIX Bank Corporation, headquartered in the Minato ward of Tokyo and in Osaka, is also considering the possibility of issuing stablecoins soon.
The assets would be backed by the US dollar and the yen, with testing set to start as early as October. A 2024 launch is in sight.
In August, a blockchain startup was reported to All these movements show that the nation is ready to roll out stablecoins for payment rails.
2020
In spite of the near-term BTC performance, some signs will always remain bullish.
That signifies that Bitcoin remains a resilient asset regardless of how many challenges or bumps in the road might come along the way.
Some analysts currently believe that the current levels are the last chance for BTC investors looking to buy the dip.
Some have compared the current performance to that of 2020 and found similarities in the mechanisms. Bitcoin’s RSI has also offered some fascinating indicators.
If that’s true, it might not be long until Bitcoin regains levels similar to the all-time high 2021. With the next halving event approaching, that’s more likely than it might seem at first glance.
Although Bitcoin has been dealing with some troubles over the past year, it remains a favorite among investors worldwide.